For sure, rising rates cause questions about cap rates. I think we could see some adjustment in prices. NAR has a view, while complicated to the neophyte, comes down to a moderate view. No cause for hysteria. Okay, so let’s see what happens. Already, in Austin, valuations has risen dramatically this year.
Passing along NAR’s explanation:
Commercial Cap Rates Likely to Keep Compressing in 2022 Despite Higher Interest Rates
Rising interest rates are likely to put some upward pressure on cap rates in 2022. However, the rise will be modest compared to the increase in the benchmark 91-day Treasury that has already increased by 1.3 percentage points as of the end of April from one year ago (2.7% as of April 26). This is because other factors are creating upward pressure on commercial real estate prices. The apartment market is likely to benefit from the higher mortgage rates due to increased demand for rental units. Reduced consumer spending will tend to lower the demand for industrial space but increased demand for warehouse space to minimize supply disruptions (just-in-case inventory management) could boost absorption. Inflation will hit consumer spending but retail stores providing essential services like the neighborhood centers will do better than retail stores providing non-essential services like high-end shopping malls. The continuing return to the office will also tend to minimize the decline in demand due to slower business formation.
For more, see : NAR blog
Marcus & Millichap weigh in : What Tightening Fed Policy Means for CRE Investors
And then another view, from respected CCIM: CRE Can Withstand A Higher Rate Environment. Here’s Why
Jason Dannat, CRE professional in Cypress, Texas, also weighs in, sharing the above chart, concluding that in any case, rates are still historically low and likely to go higher. Thus he urges acting now.